The stock market is roaring and the jobless rate appears to be going the right direction, but ECRI’s Lakshman Acuthan says to watch out, the United States is in recession and has been now for over six months. Remember, the NBER dated the Great Recession after the fact back to December 2007, a long time before anyone thought it started. Is Acuthan on to something or just defending a call he made last year? I’ll let you watch and decide, his data is certainly compelling.
He gives three different recessions where the stock market grew throughout the duration of the recession and is clear that jobless numbers don’t forecast recessions (you can be in a recession with job gains).
Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MSFP, AIF