Howard Marks Quote

Howard Marks Book

I’ve been reading Howard Marks’ book “The Most Important Thing” and the number of quotes that are brilliant are adding up, it’s a great book. I thought I’d share this one from my reading last night:

“But even when we know the shape of the probability distribution, which outcome is most likely and what the expected result is—and even if our expectations are reasonably correct—we know about only likelihoods or tendencies. I’ve spent hours playing gin and backgammon with my good friend Bruce Newberg. Our time spent with cards and dice, where the odds are absolutely knowable, demonstrates the significant role played by randomness, and thus the vagary of probabilities. Bruce has put it admirably into words: “There’s a big difference between probability and outcome. Probable things fail to happen—and improbable things happen—all the time.” That’s one of the most important things you can know about investment risk.”



Scott Dauenhauer, CFP, MPAS, AIf


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