Surely one of the most curious–and potentially costly–monetary experiments is taking place right now in India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi abruptly decided—without warning—that the 500- and 1,000-rupee notes in circulation were no longer valid currency, effectively turning 86% of his country’s paper currency into colorful scratch pads. The Reserve Bank of India is printing new replacement bills to restock its banking system, but reports say it will take five or six months before the money removed from circulation can be replaced—in a country where cash represents 98% of all transactions by volume, and 68% by value. Sales across the country have fallen by 20-30%, reducing estimates of India’s GDP growth this year.
If you want to see global economic history in a single colorful graph, check out this one, produced by The Atlantic magazine. It shows the share of global GDP for various countries since the year 1 AD.
What you see in the early years might surprise you. India accounted for almost 40% of global GDP during the height of the Roman Empire, and China accounted for another 30%. Europe and the U.S. didn’t make up more than 50% of total world economic activity until the mid-1800s, and the rise of the U.S. economy is—visibly—one of the great economic stories of all time.
The shifting economic heft is not hard to explain. Before the Industrial Revolution, the size of a country’s economy was measured by the size of its population; there wasn’t a lot of leverage due to technology or innovation. When technology began expanding the impact of some nations’ citizens but not others, there were significant shifts. Notice that the U.K. was basically invisible on the global economic landscape until the late 1600s, and became significant as the steam engine and manufacturing technology was born in its cities.
That leverage continues. Today, the U.S. makes up 5% of global population but generates 21% of its GDP. Japan, Germany, the U.K. and European countries generally are punching above their population weight, although less so than in the middle of the 1900s. Meanwhile, the Asian countries (minus Japan) account for 60% of the world’s population and just 30% of its GDP.
Will that last? Probably not. You can see the same technological leverage starting to work in favor of China, which is on track to enjoy the world’s largest GDP, as it did in the 1700s, while the U.S.’s share of the world’s economy is slowly eroding.
About the Author: Bob Veres has been a commentator, author and consultant in the financial services industry for more than 20 years. Over his 20-year career in the financial services world, Mr. Veres has worked as editor of Financial Planning magazine; as a contributing editor to the Journal of Financial Planning; as a columnist and editor-at-large of Dow Jones Investment Advisor magazine; and as editor of Morningstar’s advisor web site: MorningstarAdvisor.com.
Mr. Veres has been named one of the most influential people in the financial planning profession by Investment Advisor magazine and Financial Planning magazine, was granted the NAPFA Special Achievement Award by the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, and most recently the Heart of Financial Planning Distinguished Service Award from the Denver-based Financial Planning Association.
That headline is a big promise. But here it is: The economic history of the world going back to Year 1 showing the major powers’ share of world GDP, from a research letter written by Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JP Morgan.